{"id":2491,"date":"2022-06-07T15:35:51","date_gmt":"2022-06-07T13:35:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/?p=2491"},"modified":"2022-06-07T15:35:55","modified_gmt":"2022-06-07T13:35:55","slug":"parashikime-te-reja-2-skenare-te-mundshem-per-situaten-e-veres-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/sq\/parashikime-te-reja-2-skenare-te-mundshem-per-situaten-e-veres-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Parashikime t\u00eb reja: 2 skenar\u00eb t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr situat\u00ebn e ver\u00ebs 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kjo p\u00ebrmbledhje e ver\u00ebs synon t\u00eb ofroj\u00eb nj\u00eb vler\u00ebsim t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm dhe tablo mesatare t\u00eb ver\u00ebs s\u00eb ardhshme, ku vera p\u00ebrcaktohet si periudha Qershor-Gusht (ver\u00eb kalendarike). Skenari 1 \u00ebsht\u00eb skenari kryesor dhe skenari 2 \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar dyt\u00ebsor. Hartat tregojn\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb pamje t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme statike, nd\u00ebrsa moti n\u00eb realitet \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb dinamik dhe ndryshon. Megjithat\u00eb, tabloja e vler\u00ebs mesatare tregon n\u00ebse nj\u00eb lloj i caktuar i motit dhe pasojat e tij b\u00ebhen m\u00eb dominues se t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Skenari 1 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rrymat rrjedh\u00ebse t\u00eb motit n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb mbi Evrop\u00eb dhe zon\u00ebn p\u00ebrreth (Jet Stream) duket se karakterizohet nga moti p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht me presion t\u00eb ul\u00ebt mbi Atlantikun e Veriut, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht mbi Island\u00ebn dhe Grenland\u00ebn lindore, por ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb edhe n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Skandinavin\u00eb. N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, presioni i lart\u00eb i Azores pritet t\u00eb shtrihet edhe n\u00eb Evrop\u00ebn Per\u00ebndimore, dhe n\u00eb terma afatgjat\u00eb, presioni i lart\u00eb do t\u00eb formohet n\u00eb raunde edhe mbi Evrop\u00ebn Lindore dhe Verilindore. N\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb tipike, rryma rrjedh\u00ebse shpesh merr nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb relativisht veriore. Sistemi i motit n\u00eb imazh mund t\u00eb prishet relativisht shpesh, por megjithat\u00eb pritet t\u00eb jet\u00eb mjaft dominues sa p\u00ebr t\u00eb l\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebrshtypje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Vler\u00ebsimi i ndikimit p\u00ebr skenarin 1. Fushat e gjelb\u00ebrta n\u00eb t\u00eb kuqe tregojn\u00eb nj\u00eb kombinim t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndarjes s\u00eb pritshme t\u00eb mas\u00ebs s\u00eb ajrit dhe devijimeve t\u00eb pritura nga vlera normale, por pa klasifikim t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb. Fushat e gjelb\u00ebrta tregojn\u00eb zona me m\u00eb shum\u00eb shi se normalja. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Evropa Qendrore, Ballkani dhe Italia <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evropa Qendrore, si dhe Ballkani dhe Italia gjithashtu duket se kan\u00eb mot kryesisht t\u00eb ngroht\u00eb n\u00eb rendin e zakonsh\u00ebm, por edhe k\u00ebtu ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet shum\u00eb nxeht\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb, kjo zon\u00eb duket se ka nj\u00eb probabilitet pak m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb p\u00ebr reshje shiu dhe shkarkesa elektrike t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn m\u00eb shum\u00eb se normalja, gj\u00eb q\u00eb ndikon n\u00eb imazhin mesatar t\u00eb motit n\u00eb zon\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsi. Megjithat\u00eb, Greqia duket se po p\u00ebrjeton mot kryesisht t\u00eb that\u00eb. Ngjarjet ekstreme t\u00eb motit me shum\u00eb reshje jan\u00eb n\u00eb parim t\u00eb pamundur t\u00eb parashikohen n\u00eb k\u00ebto kushte, por sigurisht q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndodhin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skenari 2 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar alternativ q\u00eb ekziston p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxjerr\u00eb n\u00eb pah pasigurit\u00eb n\u00eb pasqyr\u00ebn e p\u00ebrgjithshme q\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb konkrete. Skenari 2 preferohet t\u00eb mos jet\u00eb e kund\u00ebrta e skenarit 1 dhe nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb skenar, ne kemi nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb m\u00eb aktive me presion t\u00eb ul\u00ebt mbi Skandinavin\u00eb veriore, nd\u00ebrsa Skandinavia jugore, Ishujt Britanik\u00eb dhe Evropa Qendrore b\u00ebhen m\u00eb t\u00eb presionit t\u00eb lart\u00eb. N\u00eb Evrop\u00ebn Jugore \u00ebsht\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht e paq\u00ebndrueshme dhe me presion t\u00eb ul\u00ebt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Vler\u00ebsimi i ndikimit p\u00ebr skenarin 2. Fushat e gjelberta n\u00eb t\u00eb kuqe tregojn\u00eb nj\u00eb kombinim t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndarjes s\u00eb pritshme t\u00eb mas\u00ebs s\u00eb ajrit dhe devijimeve t\u00eb pritura nga vlera normale, por pa klasifikim t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb. Fushat e gjelb\u00ebrta me vija tregojn\u00eb zona me m\u00eb shum\u00eb shi se normalja.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dallimet n\u00eb krahasim me skenarin 1 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dallimet kryesore n\u00ebse vera supozohet t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb zhvillim t\u00eb ngjash\u00ebm me skenarin 2 jan\u00eb t\u00eb kufizuara n\u00eb zona t\u00eb caktuara. Skandinavia veriore, p\u00ebr shembull, do t\u00eb kishte nj\u00eb ver\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb fresk\u00ebt, por jo domosdoshm\u00ebrisht m\u00eb t\u00eb lag\u00ebsht. Rreth Mesdheut do t\u00eb ket\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb reshje shiu dhe bubullima n\u00eb nj\u00eb zon\u00eb mjaft t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapur dhe gjithashtu m\u00eb t\u00eb fresk\u00ebt se normalja. N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb dallime kaq t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Suedin\u00eb jugore, p\u00ebrve\u00e7se rrit probabilitetin e nj\u00eb vere kryesisht t\u00eb that\u00eb. N\u00eb Norvegjin\u00eb jugore dhe jugper\u00ebndimore, ndryshimi b\u00ebhet m\u00eb i qart\u00eb, si\u00e7 b\u00ebjn\u00eb Ishujt Britanik\u00eb dhe ndoshta edhe Danimarka, e cila ka mot duksh\u00ebm m\u00eb t\u00eb q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm dhe m\u00eb t\u00eb that\u00eb sesa tregon skenari 1, ndoshta edhe m\u00eb i ngroht\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pra, si p\u00ebrfundim n\u00eb t\u00eb dyja skenar\u00ebt parashihet q\u00eb vera t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb me t\u00eb reshura n\u00eb vendin ton\u00eb, por duke mos p\u00ebrjashtuar edhe periudhat e caktuara t\u00eb motit me diell dhe t\u00eb nxehta. \/MeteoKosova\/<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kjo p\u00ebrmbledhje e ver\u00ebs synon t\u00eb ofroj\u00eb nj\u00eb vler\u00ebsim t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm dhe tablo mesatare t\u00eb ver\u00ebs s\u00eb ardhshme, ku vera p\u00ebrcaktohet si periudha Qershor-Gusht (ver\u00eb kalendarike). Skenari 1 \u00ebsht\u00eb skenari kryesor dhe skenari 2 \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar dyt\u00ebsor. Hartat tregojn\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb pamje t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme statike, nd\u00ebrsa moti n\u00eb realitet \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb dinamik dhe ndryshon. …<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2495,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"wds_primary_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,28,26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ballina","category-bote","category-kosove"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/1653047739.webp","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2491","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2491"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2491\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2496,"href":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2491\/revisions\/2496"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2495"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meteokosova.com\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}